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The Political Philosophy, That Says That the Most Vital Part of the Public Affairs Management System, the System of Economics, That Shapes the Market and Directs the Course of Existence of the Entire Range of Business, Trade, Commerce and Financial Endeavours of a Nation and Ultimately Shapes the Human Condition of a Nation Should Not Be in the Ownership of the Entire Nation and Its People as Their State and Government Belong to Them and the Political Economics, That Says That the Survival of the Fittest or Richest Is the Ultimate Aim of Society, in Which the Vast Majority of the Population Must Exist and Perish Away in Serving a Live-in-Life Sentence of Suffering, Agony and Hardship and Must Accept All the High-Cruelties, High-Barbarities and High-Tortures, That Capitalism Creates, Distributes and Enforces are Nothing But a Brutal, Cruel, Ruthless and Inhuman Dictate of a Monstrous Social Jingoistic Jungle, Where Neither Civic Nor Community Can Exist Nor Can There Humanity Exist as Humanity Naturale as Individuals, as Families, as Communities, as Agencies and Organisations and as a Civic Society: And When Such a Monstrous Social Jingoistic Jungle is Established in a Country It Becomes Worse Than a Jungle and It Becomes Every Citizen's Civic and Moral Duty and an Existential Necessity of Humanity to Do All in Their Democratic Power to Eliminate Such Jingoistic Jungle and Replace It with a Civic Society Where Community, People, Families, Individuals and All Humanity are as Real, as Connected and as Active, as Engaged and as Creative as the Human Physiology Is in All Humans of a Given Society: Sunday: July 28: 2019

 

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Global Coal Power Is Set for Record Fall in 2019: The European Union Has Surprised All With a Staggering 23% Year on Year Decline in Coal-fired Power Generation in the Calendar Year to September 2019

 

|| Tuesday: November 26: 2019 || ά. Coal-fired power, used to make electricity, is on track for record declines globally in 2019, finds a new briefing note out yesterday by the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis:IEEFA, the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air:CREA and Sandbag. The Note, Global Coal Power Set for Record Fall in 2019, finds thermal coal declines are likely across China, the US, the European Union and Japan.

The long-term decline of unabated thermal coal use is becoming increasingly clear. Mr Tim Buckley, Co-author of the Report and the Director of Energy Finance Studies at IEEFA, says that the growth in Southeast Asian markets is unable to absorb the coming over-supply of thermal coal.

“At just 04.6% of the world’s total coal-fired power generation in 2019, the Southeast Asian region is not big enough to compensate for the dramatic cuts in thermal coal use in the US, the European Union and South Korea and the on-going slow decline in Japan.’’ says Mr Buckley. The US. is on track for a record decline in coal-fired power generation in 2019.

Coal-fired power is tracking down 13.9% year on year and coal use in power generation is reported at down 13.0%, Mr Buckley notes. “The European Union has surprised all with a staggering 23% year on year decline in coal-fired power generation in the calendar year to September 2019.

“And Japan’s thermal coal imports are down some 03.5% year on year, reflective of flat overall electricity demand and rising nuclear power and renewables generation, from a low base.”

Co-authored with Mr Lauri Myllyvirta, the Lead Analyst at the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air:CREA and Mr Dave Jones, Electricity and Coal Analyst with Sandbag, the Note finds the rate of decline in global thermal coal-fired power generation is dropping 03% year on year in 2019, moderated in part by slower global economic growth.

“World electricity markets are experiencing a dramatic technology-driven disruption.” says Mr Buckley. “The economics of renewables and batteries are seeing double-digit annual deflation and new thermal coal-fired power generation increasingly can not compete.”

The IEEFA notes that global capital is increasingly fleeing coal in the face of rising stranded asset risks. To date, 110 globally significant financial institutions have announced coal financing restrictions across the banking and insurance sectors.

“The long-term decline of unabated thermal coal use is becoming increasingly clear.” says Mr Buckley. “A stalling in coal-fired power generation in China, despite the illogical continuation of building new, idle coal power plants and a totally unexpected decline in India during calendar year 2019 to-date might be the wake-up call for forecasters that technology is disrupting the global electricity market, while at the same time, driving the convergence of new energy technologies in the transport sector.

The transition away from coal is happening faster than forecasters can keep up with.”

About IEEFA: The Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis conducts research and analyses on financial and economic issues related to energy and the environment. The Institute’s mission is to accelerate the transition to a diverse, sustainable and profitable energy economy. ieefa.org

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What Would It Take to Limit the Global Temperature rise to 01.5°C

 

 

|| Monday: November 18: 2019 || ά. Every year, the World Energy Outlook scenarios are updated to take into account the latest data and developments in policies, technology, costs and science. The major new scientific element for this year’s WEO was without doubt the Special Report on Global Warming of 01.5 °C, which the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change:IPCC published in late 2018.

The IPCC report contains a wealth of new information about the risks of global warming, underlining that many of the physical impacts of climate change escalate in a non-linear fashion in relation to increases in global temperature. In other words, the impacts of 02.0°C of warming are far worse than those of 01.5°C. The energy sector is at the front line of this issue, as it is by far the largest source of the emissions, that cause global warming.

As a result, this year’s WEO explores in detail what a pathway consistent with capping the temperature rise at 01.5°C would mean for the energy sector. The discussion goes to the heart of energy’s dual role in modern civilisation: it’s essential to all the comforts of modern life, our homes, workplaces, leisure and our infrastructure but, the way it’s largely produced and consumed at the moment damages the environment on which we all depend.

Although, the task of tackling climate change is huge, it is relatively simple to define. Global emissions need to peak as soon as possible and then fall rapidly until they hit zero or, as the Paris Agreement puts it, until there is a ‘balance between anthropogenic emissions by sources and removals by sinks’, a situation, sometimes, called, net-zero.

It’s not the only variable, that counts but, the year at which global emissions reach net-zero is a critically important indicator for the prospects of stabilising global temperatures. The Paris Agreement specifies that this needs to happen ‘in the second half of this century’. The IPCC’s 01.5°C report underlines that there is a major difference between reaching net-zero in 2100 versus 2050 and attention in many countries is increasingly focused on earlier dates.

After the UN Climate Summit in September, at least, 65 jurisdictions, including, the European Union, had set or were actively considering long-term net-zero carbon targets, including, efforts to reach net-zero in 2050 or sooner. These economies together accounted for 21% of global gross domestic product and nearly 13% of energy-related CO2 emissions in 2018.

The Sustainable Development Scenario: The Sustainable Development Scenario relies on all of these net-zero targets being achieved on schedule and in full. The technology learning and policy momentum, that they generate, means that they become the leading edge of a much broader worldwide effort, bringing global energy-related CO2 emissions down sharply to less than 10 billion tonnes by 2050, on track for global net-zero by 2070.

There are no single or simple solutions to achieve this result. Rapid energy transitions of the sort envisaged by the Sustainable Development Scenario would require action across all sectors, utilising a wide range of energy technologies and policies. Energy efficiency improvements and massive investment in renewables, led by solar PV, take the lead but, there are, also, prominent roles in this scenario for carbon capture, utilisation and storage:CCUS, hydrogen, nuclear and others.

Among the range of technology solutions proposed for global emissions, there is one category, that is used only very sparingly. These are the so-called negative emissions technologies, which, actually, remove CO2 from the atmosphere. Examples are bio-energy used in conjunction with CCUS, often, called, BECCS and direct air capture. These technologies, may, yet, play a critical role but, the level at which they are deployed in the Sustainable Development Scenario, 0.25 billion tonnes in 2050, is lower than nearly all of the 01.5 °C scenarios assessed by the IPCC.

The Sustainable Development Scenario and the pursuit of 01.5 °C: If, emissions were to stay flat, at the net-zero level, from 2070 until the end of the century, then, the Sustainable Development Scenario is ‘likely’, with 66% probability, to limit the rise in the average global temperature to 01.8 °C, which is, broadly, equivalent to a 50% probability of a stabilisation at 01.65 °C.

If, negative emissions technologies of the sort mentioned above could be deployed at scale, then, emissions could, actually, go below zero, meaning that carbon dioxide is being withdrawn from the atmosphere on a net basis. This is a very common feature of the scenarios, assessed by the IPCC in its special report: 88 out of the 90 scenarios in the IPCC’s report assume some level of net negative emissions.

A level of net negative emissions significantly smaller than that used in most scenarios assessed by the IPCC would give the Sustainable Development Scenario a 50% probability of limiting the rise in global temperatures to 01.5 °C.

It is technically conceivable that the world will reach a point where large quantities of CO2 are absorbed from the atmosphere but, there are uncertainties about what, may be, possible and about the likely impacts. As we have pointed out in previous WEOs, when designing deep decarbonisation scenarios, there are reasons to limit reliance on early-stage technologies for which future rates of deployment are highly uncertain.

That is why the WEO has always emphasised the importance of early policy action: the pathway followed by the Sustainable Development Scenario relies on an immediate and rapid acceleration in energy transitions.

With the same precautionary reasoning in mind, the WEO-2019, also, explores what it would take to achieve a 50% probability of stabilisation at 01.5 °C without net negative emissions.

A 01.5 °C scenario, that does not rely on negative emissions technologies implies achieving global net-zero emissions around 2050. This, in turn, means a reduction in emissions of around 01.3 billion tonnes CO2 every year from 2018 onwards. That amount is, roughly, equivalent to the emissions from 15% of the world’s coal fleet or from 40% of today’s global passenger car fleet.

The year by which different economies would need to hit net-zero in such a scenario would vary but, the implication for advanced economies is that they would need to reach this point in the 2040s. The difference, compared with the Sustainable Development Scenario, would be much starker for many developing economies, which would all need to be at net-zero by 2050.

A zero-carbon power system would need to become a reality at least a few years before the entire economy reaches net-zero. This implies moving to a zero-emissions electricity system in the 2030s for advanced economies and around 2040 for developing economies.

Discussing target dates in this context is useful but, the really tough part is working out how to get there. That requires credible plans to, actually, reduce emissions quickly across the entire economy, pathways, that work not just from the perspectives of technical feasibility or cost-efficiency, although, these are important but, also, take into account the need for social acceptance and buy-in.

The technical solutions in the power sector, at least, are well known, although, the scale and speed at which clean energy technologies would need to be deployed and existing facilities either repurposed, retrofitted with CCUS or retired, is breath-taking. But any economy-wide net-zero target, also, needs to find answers quickly for sectors, that are much harder to decarbonise, notably, buildings, heavy industries like cement and steel, aviation and freight transport. Achieving such an outcome, without compromising the affordability or reliability of energy, represents an extraordinary challenge.

The energy sector is rightly at the heart of the climate debate but, it can not deliver such a transformation on its own. Change on a massive scale would be necessary across a very broad front. As the IPCC 01.5 °C report says, this type of scenario would require rapid and far-reaching transitions not only in energy but, also, in land, urban infrastructure, including, transport and buildings and industrial systems.

In its 2019 edition, the World Energy Outlook once again puts the spotlight on the huge disparity between the kind of transformation, that is required and the pathway, that the world is on, according to our assessment of today’s policy plans and ambitions and the rising energy needs of a growing global population and economy.

As the IEA’s Executive Director, Dr Fatih Birol, commented at the WEO launch this week, the world urgently needs to put a laser-like focus on bringing down global emissions. “This calls for a grand coalition encompassing governments, investors, companies and everyone else who is committed to tackling climate change,” Dr Birol said. “Our Sustainable Development Scenario is tailor-made to help guide the members of such a coalition in their efforts to address the massive climate challenge that faces us all.”

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 ::: This piece is by Laura Cozzi: Chief Energy Modeler and Tim Gould, Head of Division for Energy Supply Outlooks and Investment at the International Energy Agency:IEA || :::ω::: ||

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The End of Dinosaur Economics: A Quantum Ambition With Seismic Leap Is a Must: Time It Is For Clean Green Circular and Sustainable Economics: European Investment Bank Will End Financing for Fossil Fuel Energy Project From 2021: Any Financing That Is Not Green Will Be Made Sustainable According to the Requirements of the Paris Deal

 

 

|| Friday: November 15: 2019 || ά. The board of the European Investment Bank:EIB agreed a new energy lending policy and confirmed the EIB’s increased ambition in climate action and environmental sustainability. This newly approved strategy for climate action and environmental sustainability. This includes three key elements: a: The EIB Group will aim to support EUR 01 trillion of investments in climate action and environmental sustainability in the critical decade from 2021 to 2030;

b: The EIB will gradually increase the share of its financing dedicated to climate action and environmental sustainability to reach 50% of its operations in 2025 and from then on and c: The EIB Group will align all its financing activities with the principles and goals of the Paris agreement by the end of 2020. In the near future this will be complemented by measures to ensure EIB financing contributes to a just transition for those regions or countries more affected so that no one is left behind. And, it is time, the entire world’s all investment banks and finance houses, must, follow the leadership of the European Investment Bank. And, to ensure that happens, the public movement must keep on going on the streets in cities, towns and communities across the globe. The time for dinosaur economics is no more: it is time for the economics of sustainability to create a system of economics, that is clean, green, circular and sustainable and, in this, it can not but be so unless it is fair and just to all humanity at the same time: in the new maxim: it can not harm anything and any one: that includes the earth and humans. This means that this new system of economics must deliver building-block foundational human rights to all humanity across the earth for only with these new rights capitalism is brought to a state of not harming anything and anyone.

These humanical foundational human rights are: A: Absolute Right to Live in Clean, Healthy, Safe and Natural Environment: B: Absolute Right to Breathe Natural, Fresh, Clean and Safe Air: C: Absolute Right to Necessary Nutritional Balanced Food and Drink: D: Absolute Right to Free Medical Care at the Point of Need: E: Absolute Right to an Absolute Home: F: Absolute Right to Free Degree-Level Education and Life Long Learning: G: Absolute Right to Guaranteed Social Care: H: Absolute Right to a Universal Income: I: Absolute Right to a Job: J: Absolute Right to Dignified Civic and Human Funeral Paid Through by Universal Income. For only with these newly created foundational human rights, that are eternal and infinite and legally enforceable will create the condition, that will deal with all of capitalism’s high-cruelties, high-barbarities and high-brutalities, that are enforced through the current system of economics, that is nothing but ensuring poverty devastates the entire human existence. It is not sustainable, it can not be sustained and it must be dealt with as we seek to create a new economics on clean, green, circular and sustainable foundations.

“Climate is the top issue on the political agenda of our time.” said EIB President Mr Werner Hoyer. “Scientists estimate that we are currently heading for 03-04°C of temperature increase by the end of the century. If, that happens, large portions of our planet will become uninhabitable, with disastrous consequences for people around the world.

The EU bank has been Europe’s climate bank for many years. Today it has decided to make a quantum leap in its ambition. We will stop financing fossil fuels and we will launch the most ambitious climate investment strategy of any public financial institution anywhere.” Stressing the need for co-operation, he further said, “I would like to thank the shareholders of the Bank, the EU Member States, for their co-operation over the past months.

We look forward to working closely with them and with the EU Council of Ministers, with the European Commission, the European Parliament, international and financial institutions and, crucially, with the private sector, to support a climate neutral European economy by 2050.” The new energy lending policy details five principles, that will govern future EIB engagement in the energy sector: a: prioritising energy efficiency with a view to supporting the new EU target under the EU Energy Efficiency Directive; b: enabling energy decarbonisation through increased support for low or zero carbon technology, aiming to meet a 32% renewable energy share throughout the EU by 2030; c: increasing financing for decentralised energy production, innovative energy storage and e-mobility; d: ensuring grid investment essential for new, intermittent energy sources like wind and solar, as well as, strengthening cross-border interconnections and e: increasing the impact of investment to support energy transformation outside the EU.

Mr Andrew McDowell, EIB Vice-President in charge of energy, said, “Carbon emissions from the global energy industry reached a new record high in 2018. We must act urgently to counter this trend. The EIB’s ambitious energy lending policy adopted today is a crucial milestone in the fight against global warming.

Following a long discussion, we have reached a compromise to end the financing by the EU Bank of unabated fossil fuel projects, including, gas, from the end of 2021. I am grateful for all those, who have contributed to the largest ever public consultation on EIB lending in recent months and energy expert colleagues, who have outlined how the EU bank can drive global efforts to decarbonise energy.”

This decision ends an open and inclusive review process, which involved industry, institutions, civil society and the public at large. Intensive stake-holder engagement since January produced more than 149 written submissions from concerned organisations and individuals and petitions signed by more than 30,000 people.                         

Over the last five years the European Investment Bank has provided more than EUR 65 billion of financing for renewable energy, energy efficiency and energy distribution. Following this new approval of the revised energy lending policy, the EIB will no longer consider new financing for unabated, fossil fuel energy projects, including, gas, from the end of 2021 onwards.

In addition, the Bank set a new Emissions Performance Standard of 250g of CO2 per Kilowatt:hour:KwH. This will replace the current 550gCO2:KwH standard. A previous review of energy lending in 2013 had already enabled the EIB to be the first international finance institution to effectively end financing for coal and lignite power generation through adoption of a strict Emissions Performance Standard.

Ten EU countries face specific energy investment challenges. The EIB will work closely with the European Commission to support investment by a Just Transition Fund. The EIB will be able to finance up to 75% of the eligible project cost for new energy investment in these countries. These projects will, also, benefit from both advisory and financial support from the EIB.

The EU bank has been Europe’s climate bank for a long time. Since 2012, the EIB provided EUR 150 billion of finance, supporting EUR 550 billion of investment in projects, that reduce emissions and help countries adapt to the impacts of climate change. This made the EIB one of the world’s largest multi-lateral providers of finance for projects supporting these objectives.

EIB Vice-President Ms Emma Navarro, in charge of climate action and environment, said, “To meet the Paris climate goals we urgently need to raise our level of ambition and this is precisely what we have done today. Two weeks before the United Nations climate change conference in Madrid, these decisions send an important signal to the world: The European Union and its Bank, the EIB, commit to mobilise investments on an unprecedented scale to support climate action projects around the world.

In addition, we commit to align all EIB Group activities with the principles and goals of the Paris agreement by the end of 2020. Any financing, that is not green will be made sustainable, according to the requirements of the Paris deal.”

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Africa’s Energy Future Matters for the World: Africa Must Capture the Renewables Future

 

 

 

|| Monday: November 11: 2019 || ά. Africa is set to become, increasingly, influential in shaping global energy trends over the next two decades as it undergoes the largest process of urbanisation the world has ever seen, according to a new Report from the International Energy Agency:IEA.

Africa Energy Outlook 2019, a special in-depth Study, published today, finds that current policy and investment plans in African countries are not enough to meet the energy needs of the continent’s young and rapidly growing population. Today, 600 million people in Africa do not have access to electricity and 900 million lack access to clean cooking facilities.

The number of people living in Africa’s cities is expected to expand by 600 million over the next two decades, much higher than the increase experienced by China’s cities during the country’s 20-year economic and energy boom. Africa’s overall population is set to exceed two billion before 2040, accounting for half of the global increase over that period. These profound changes will drive the continent’s economic growth, infrastructure development and, in turn, energy demand, which is projected to rise 60% to around 1,320 million tonnes of oil equivalent in 2040, based on current policies and plans.

The new Report is the IEA’s most comprehensive and detailed work to date on energy across the African continent, with a particular emphasis on sub-saharan Africa. It includes detailed energy profiles of 11 countries, that represent three-quarters of the region’s gross domestic product and energy demand, including Nigeria, South Africa, Ethiopia, Kenya and Ghana.

The Report makes clear that Africa’s energy future is not pre-determined. Current plans would leave 530 million people on the continent still without access to electricity in 2030, falling well short of universal access, a major development goal. But with the right policies, it could reach that target while, also, becoming the first continent to develop its economy, mainly, through the use of modern energy sources. Drawing on rich natural resources and advances in technology, the continent could by 2040 meet the energy demands of an economy four times larger than today’s with only 50% more energy.

“Africa has a unique opportunity to pursue a much less carbon-intensive development path than many other parts of the world.” said Dr Fatih Birol, the IEA’s Executive Director. “To achieve this, it has to take advantage of the huge potential, that solar, wind, hydropower, natural gas and energy efficiency offer. For example, Africa has the richest solar resources on the planet but has so far installed, only, 05 gigawatts of solar photovoltaics:PV, which is less than 01% of global capacity.”

If, policy makers put a strong emphasis on clean energy technologies, solar PV could become the continent’s largest electricity source in terms of installed capacity by 2040. Natural gas, meanwhile, is likely to correspond well with Africa’s industrial growth drive and need for flexible electricity supply. Today, the share of gas in sub-saharan Africa’s energy mix is the lowest of any region in the world. But that could be about to change, especially, considering the supplies Africa has at its disposal: it is home to more than 40% of global gas discoveries so far this decade, notably, in Egypt, Mozambique and Tanzania.

Africa’s natural resources aren’t limited to sunshine and other energy sources. It, also, possesses major reserves of minerals, such as, cobalt and platinum, that are needed in fast-growing clean energy industries.

“Africa holds the key for global energy transitions, as it is the continent with the most important ingredients for producing critical technologies.” Dr Birol said. “For example, the Democratic Republic of the Congo accounts for two-thirds of global production of cobalt, a vital element in batteries and South Africa produces 70% of the world’s platinum, which is used in hydrogen fuel cells. As energy transitions accelerate, so will demand for those minerals.”

African countries are on the front line when it comes to climate change, meaning the continent’s energy infrastructure planning must be climate resilient. 

“Even, though, Africa has produced, only, around 02% of the world’s energy-related CO2 emissions to date, its eco-systems, already, suffer disproportionately from the effects of a changing climate.” Dr Birol said. “They are exposed to increased risks to food, health and economic security.”

By 2040, an additional half a billion people in Africa are expected to live in areas, requiring some form of cooling as populations expand and average temperatures increase. Although, Africa is expected to experience rapid economic growth over the next two decades, its contribution to global energy-related CO2 emissions rises to just 3% by 2040, based on current policies and plans.

For this Report, the IEA developed a new scenario, that analyses how the energy sector can spur Africa’s growth ambitions while, also, delivering key sustainable development goals by 2030, including, full access to electricity and clean cooking facilities. The Africa Case is based on Agenda 2063, African leaders’ own strategic framework for the continent’s economic and industrial development. Economic growth in the Africa Case is significantly stronger over the next two decades than in the scenario based on today’s stated policies, but energy demand is lower. This is linked to an accelerated move away from the use of solid bio-mass, such as wood, as a fuel and to the wide application of energy efficiency policies.

The IEA has been monitoring Africa’s energy sector closely for a long time: IEA analysis of energy access issues on the continent began in 2002 and is set to expand significantly. This new report comes at an important time in the IEA’s deepening engagement with Africa. In May, the IEA and the African Union Commission co-hosted their first joint ministerial summit at which the two organisations signed a Memorandum of Understanding to guide future collaboration. A second ministerial forum will be held in 2020.

Africa Energy Outlook 2019 is an excerpt from the IEA’s flagship report World Energy Outlook 2019, which will be published in full on November 13.

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It’s Time to Move Away Dinosaur Economics: Data Shows US Shift Away From Coal-fired Generation Is Intensifying

 

 

 

|| Monday: November 11: 2019 || ά. New data from the Energy Information Administration:EIA indicates that the shift away from coal-fired power generation has accelerated this year in the United States. In August, utilities generated 18 percent less power from coal than in August of last year, marking the sixth month in 2019 with a decline of more than 10 percent.

The Southeast reports some of the steepest coal generation drops this year, led by a 62 percent decline in Virginia, where coal’s market share has fallen to 04 percent from nearly 11 percent in 2018. Coal-fired generation is, also, down enormously in Florida, by 31 percent; in Alabama, by 23 percent and in South Carolina and Tennessee, by 21 percent, all states where the regional trend was first detailed in an IEEFA Report, published in October, Coal-Fired Power Generation in Freefall Across Southeast US.

Last year, not a single month had a decline of 10 percent or more. Overall for the year, coal-generated power has fallen by 13.9 percent. The decline is, also, happening broadly across the US in 30 of the 45 states, that still burn coal for power, coal-fired generation is down 10 percent this year.

Full-scale retirements alone do not entirely account for this decline. Many utilities are, also, curtailing the operations of plants, that are still active, running the plants at lower capacity factors, in favour of operating lower-cost gas and renewable generation. That’s a bad sign for coal producers large and small.

Midwestern and Ohio River Valley states, many of which have been historically dependent on coal-fired generation, also, report significant declines this year. Illinois and Indiana were down 17 percent through August, Ohio and Pennsylvania by about 15 percent each. Even, Kentucky and West Virginia, two states among the most reliant on coal mining and coal-fired generation, had declines of 08 percent each. The move away from coal in this region, especially, was one of the reasons cited in last week’s bankruptcy filing by Murray Energy, among the largest U.S. coal-mining companies.

In two Midwestern states, Illinois and Indiana, a sharp increase in wind generation has been a factor. Wind-powered generation is up 22 percent this year in Illinois, to a market share of, nearly, 08 percent and 16 percent in Indiana, a 06 percent market share.

To be sure, coal plant retirements are a major part of the power-generation change, that is at work. Data compiled by IEEFA shows that 57 coal-fired units with a total capacity of 14 gigawatts will close this year, about 05.8 percent of all remaining coal-fired capacity.

Market forces, that favour cheaper forms of generation are at the root of the shift, that is undermining American coal as a whole. These market forces are the reasons as to why Peabody Energy’s stock price tanked so sharply last week on a poor earnings report and this is why Navajo Transitional Energy Company’s acquisition of Cloud Peak Energy is so ill-advised, why Peabody and Arch Coal are consolidating operations in the Western US, why 11 coal-mining companies have filed for bankruptcy in the past three years and why coal’s share of the national power-generation is expected to fall to just 22 percent in 2020 from 48 percent in 2008.

Additionally, export prices for overseas coal have deteriorated significantly in recent months, leading the EIA to forecast a 40-million-tonne decline in shipments in 2020 from 2018 levels, to 75.5 million tonnes in 2020 from 115.6 million tonnes in 2018. The one-two punch from falling domestic demand and low export prices were major factors, pushing Murray Energy into bankruptcy.

In short, these are all more signs that the once-dominant coal industry is in the midst of a steep structural decline.

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|| reginehumanicsfoundation.com || 121119 || Up ||

 

 

 

 

India: Thermal Coal Flat-lines in Faltering Economy: Power From Non-coal Sources Continues to Grow

 

|| Monday: November 11: 2019: Charles Worringham Writing || ά. In the space of just a few days, India’s slowing economy has attracted the attention not only of the domestic press but, of international media, including, the Financial Times and an Economist special report, which noted that ‘with alarming speed, India has gone from being the world’s fastest-growing large economy to something more like a rumbling Indian railway train’.

A host of economic indicators have received attention, ranging from the official, World Bank and Indian government growth downgrades, through indices, such as, Fitch Ratings or Live Mint’s Macro Tracker, to the flippant but, nonetheless, informative, including, the New York Times’ story on underwear sales or, Neilsen’s report of declining toothpaste purchases in rural India.

Having held up throughout the summer when other signs of a relative downturn were already apparent, the amount of thermal coal burned for power fell precipitously in September and October. So steep has been the decline that the annual increase in coal consumption by the power sector, which has averaged 06.3% or 27 million extra tonnes each year for the last 12 years, fell to zero not only for the financial year to date but, also, for the full 12 months to October  31, compared to the previous year.

When economies stumble, slackening electricity demand is a very common symptom. In India’s case, the current decline is quite specific to coal. This is most readily seen by comparing how power generation from different sources has changed across the course of this year relative to last. 

Hydro, solar and nuclear have added substantially to their generation levels of the previous year and continue upwards. Wind started well but the monsoon period was disappointing, resulting in less cumulative generation than at the end of October in FY19. Gas, a minor player, also, lagged slightly.

Collectively, power from all non-coal sources grew by about 24,000 GWh or 08.4%, to the end of October. The obvious exception is coal, which had made the largest contribution to extra energy as of late July, only, to falter in August and collapse in September and October. As of the time of writing, coal had produced about 12,500 GWh less electricity than it had by the same date in FY19, roughly, the amount, for perspective, consumed by Delhi and its 24 million residents in five months.

Three related points can be made about this abrupt fall. Firstly, it is not primarily the consequence of any shortage of coal, despite claims to the contrary. Power plant stocks are now 08.5 million tonnes, 66%, higher than at the end of October last year when generation was much higher, despite 29 plants having ‘critically low’ stocks, only, three plants are in that position today. Not only have the Rail and Coal Ministries succeeded in increasing power plant stocks overall, they have evened out the distribution to reduce the number with only a few days’ supply; even, though, these now include more high capacity plants.

More to the point, the 77 plants, that generated less energy in late October this year than they did a year ago had on average 07.8 more days of stock on hand, using October 28 as the day for comparison and, only plants, whose capacity was the same in both years.

Thus, while specific individual plants clearly do have supply problems because of strikes, weather, e.g, Talcher STPS, the Dipka mine flood, and others, such as, Tuticorin JV TPS, are receiving less coal than a year ago, this is not typical. Nationally neither unmet energy nor unmet peak demand has increased. Warnings that a supply crunch threatens to restrict India’s economy by 2024 may or may not eventuate but, they are not today’s reality. Rather, India’s economy appears to be limiting the use of available coal. 

The second point is that the duration of the thermal coal downturn can not be accurately forecast. To the extent it is driven by India’s economic conditions, it could be relatively brief, if, the economic optimists are correct, such as, Gaurav Dalmia, interviewed at the University of Pennsylvania’s Wharton Business School or longer-lasting, if, we rely on those who see more intractable and structural factors at play. The Economist’s take is that higher growth will largely depend on whether India adopts appropriate economic reforms: ‘With luck, in a few years’ time, the present slump may be regarded as a useful catalysing moment’.

The third observation is this that the coal slump offers India an unusual opportunity. While not under pressure from burgeoning electricity demand growth, India could fortify its necessary energy transition plans, reduce the country’s 01.2 million annual air pollution-related deaths and stimulate urgently needed rural job growth, all while enhancing India’s energy security through greater domestic capacity.

This could include a revival of large-scale renewable infrastructure investment in preparation for sustained higher growth, while accelerating the HVDC Green Corridors and plans for the Flexible Operation of Thermal Power Plants, as well as, new projects built on the comprehensive and collaborative Grid Integration studies India has developed.

As India presses forward with its renewable energy transition, as and when higher economic growth does resume, it will be fuelled by substantially cleaner energy than in the past.

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::: Charles Worringham is a guest contributor with IEEFA South Asia. He edits India Power Review:::ω.

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The International Energy Agency Report Warns: The Time to Act Now As Global Energy Efficiency Progress Drops to the Slowest Rate Since the Start of the Decade

 

 

|| Monday: November 04: 2019 || ά. Energy efficiency has tremendous potential to boost economic growth and avoid greenhouse gas emissions but, the global rate of progress is slowing, a trend, that has major implications for consumers, businesses and the environment, according to a new Report by the International Energy Agency:IEA.

Global primary energy intensity, an important indicator of how heavily the world’s economic activity uses energy, improved by just 01.2% in 2018, the slowest rate since the start of this decade, according to Energy Efficiency 2019, the IEA’s annual Report on energy efficiency.

The rate of improvement has now declined for three years in a row, leaving it well below the 03% minimum, that IEA analysis shows is central to achieving global climate and energy goals. If, the rate had reached 03% over that period, the world could have generated a further USD02.6 trillion of economic output, close to the size of the entire French economy for the same amount of energy.

“The historic slowdown in energy efficiency in 2018, the lowest rate of improvement since the start of the decade, calls for bold action by policy makers and investors.” said Dr Fatih Birol, the IEA’s Executive Director. “We can improve energy efficiency by 03% per year simply through the use of existing technologies and cost-effective investments. There is no excuse for inaction: ambitious policies need to be put in place to spur investment and put the necessary technologies to work on a global scale.”

The need for stronger action underpins the work of the Global Commission for Urgent Action on Energy Efficiency, which the IEA announced in July. Headed by Irish Prime Minister Mr Leo Varadkar, the Commission’s members include national leaders, government ministers and top business executives. It will produce recommendations next summer on how to achieve major breakthroughs in energy efficiency policy.

The slowdown in energy efficiency is, also, the key reason the IEA has been the driving force behind the Three Percent Club, an initiative under which 15 countries have, already, signalled their commitment to help the world get on a path of 03% annual improvements in energy intensity.

Energy Efficiency 2019 examines in detail the reasons for the recent deceleration in efficiency progress. It finds that it results from a mixture of social and economic trends, combined with some specific factors such as extreme weather. At the same time, policy measures and investment are failing to keep pace with the rising energy demand. This means that new ways of policy thinking, that move beyond traditional approaches are required, particularly, to maximise the potential efficiency gains from the rapid spread of digital technologies throughout economies and energy systems.

The new Report includes a special focus on the ways, in which digitalisation is transforming energy efficiency and increasing its value. By multiplying the interconnections among buildings, appliances, equipment and transport systems, digitalisation is providing energy efficiency gains beyond what was possible when these areas remained largely disconnected. While efficiency in these areas has always had benefits for energy systems, digitalisation enables these benefits to be measured and valued more quickly and more accurately.

“As digitalisation transforms the global energy system, the IEA is committed to helping countries ensure they are able to maximise the benefits while navigating the challenges.” Dr Birol said. The Report points out that, while digital technologies could benefit all sectors and end uses of energy, uncertainty remains over the scale of those benefits. Much will depend on how policies are designed to respond to the huge opportunities and to the emerging challenges, most notably, the risk of increased energy demand from the mushrooming use of digital devices.

The IEA’s commitment to advancing energy efficiency around the world includes sustained efforts to build greater capacity for smart policy-making in emerging economies. In the past year, the IEA has trained nearly 500 policy makers from 100 countries. A notable recent example is the first ever IEA energy efficiency training week in sub-saharan Africa, which took place from October 14-17 October in Pretoria, South Africa.

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Why Humanity Must Rise to Discard Capitalism In Order to Keep on Existing on Earth Because It Is Capitalism That Has Brought the Earth and Humanity to This Total Wipe Out

 

 

|| Tuesday: October 29: 2019: Munayem Mayenin || ά. This piece, picks up on the following list of what capitalism has brought on earth and sentenced the entire humanity to perish away in suffering a horrendous human condition, comprised of all high-cruelties, high-barbarities and high-brutalities and, with it, led everything towards creating an unsustainable way of ‘wasting away’ in endless consumption for infinite greed for profit, into extinction: extinction of all expressions of the ecology of life on earth, including, humanity.

The world’s capitalism’s establishment and the people, in whom it has found its ‘till-death-loyal-followers, seek to portray this mythology that capitalism has established a ‘heaven on earth’ while all we can see is the vast and endless sociology of squalor being expanded everyday across the earth and there is no end in sight as to where and when this nightmare of an economics system, this capitalism to come to an end. And, let the people, who believe Marxism will re-emerge and rescue humanity from capitalism, acknowledge that that is an illusion because it is not going to happen.

Humanics has brought about the vision of that future without capitalism and it is new but it will not just disappear but keep on going for humanity can not just sit still and await extinction. Humanity, particularly, the younger generations, must not go quietly and wait till extinction wipes all out of the earth. This fight for existence must gather pace and must we keep on going because otherwise capitalism will bring everything to an end with this phase of it, this pseudonomics, that now ravages the world and world humanity.

Humanity Will Have No Future Unless Capitalism Is Discarded: Why: a: Lack of Universal Education Higher Education and Life-Long Learning: b: Lack of Universal Employment: c: Lack of Universal Home: d: Lack of Universal Social Services: e: Lack of Universal Social Care: f: Lack of Universal Medical Care: g: Absence of Building-Block Foundational Human Rights: h: Poverty: i: Hunger: j: Malnutrition: k: Destitution: l: Poverty-wage: m: Polluted Natural and Built Environment: n: Polluted Oceans and Water-ways: o: Polluted Toxic Air: p: Plastic Pollution: q: Infinite Greed and Infinite Consuming: r: Highest Waste of Natural Financial and Human Resources: s: Pseudonomical Profiteering and Robbery: t: Unable to Seek to Achieve Circularity Sustainability and Green Economics in All Business Trade and Commerce:

u: Global Warming: v: Climate Change: w: Destruction of Representative Democracy and Rise of Racist Misogynistic Chauvinistic Xenophobic and Supremacist Majoritarian Mob Dictatorship: India Brazil United States of America and Many Other Countries Around the World and Particularly in the European Union: x: Sociology of Squalor: y: Sociology of Evil: z: The Distorteddia: We Have Run Out of the Alphabet:!: Alpha: Dehumanisation of Humanity: Beta: The Destruction of the Self and the Agency of the Human Mind: Gamma: The Weakening and Destruction of Individuals Families and Communities: Delta: Absence of a Philosophical Political Philosophical and Political Economical Movement in the World That Takes Into Consideration and Respond to the Existential Threats Being Put Before Humanity by Capitalism and Its Killing Mechanism Means That This Killing Mechanism Is Dragging Humanity Towards the Slaughter-House of the End Along With It the Entire Web and Ecology of Life on Earth Are Being Terminated! Humanics Has Put Forward the Vision of Humanity Without Capitalism But with and in Humanics: It Is Up to the World's Humanity Particularly the Youth to Rise to Save Humanity From This Definitive Doom Being Implemented by Capitalism.

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  Fiduciary Duty and Fossil Fuel Divestment: Obligation of Impartiality Requires Investment Managers to Divest